The paper explores potential “social tipping elements” (STEs) and “social tipping interventions” (STIs) that could drive a rapid global transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers identified these STEs and STIs through an expert survey, workshop, and extensive literature review. These concepts add to the existing shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used in climate change research.

Tipping processes in literature have been classified into categories such as critical thresholds, reminiscent of the “butterfly effect”, and metamorphosis, involving a swift loss of one type of structure alongside the creation of new ones. The tipping dynamics of interest in this study involve contagious dynamics and spread through complex social networks, affecting behaviors, opinions, knowledge, technologies, and social norms. Similar dynamics have been noted in various fields, such as public health and social movement participation.

STE’s are considered subsystems of the global system that includes both the natural Earth and the human societal world. The defining feature of a STE is that minor changes or interventions can lead to significant macroscopic alterations, propelling the system into a new state that is difficult to revert. The paper acknowledges that quantifications of the relationship between small interventions and large effects are rare, and there are currently no strong examples of large interventions leading to large effects.

The paper concludes that while some changes in the global system could be caused by non-human or unintentional forces, others could be driven by intentional human actions.

Energy Production System

• Adopt Existing Carbon-Free Technologies: The first step involves transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This is not about inventing new technologies, but rather about adopting and adapting existing carbon-free technologies in the power sector and finding smarter ways to utilize energy.

• Reach Financial Tipping Point: This step is achieved when fossil-fuel-free energy production becomes more financially viable than energy production based on fossil fuels. This is driven by the falling prices of renewables and increased efficiency of these energy sources.

• Policy Interventions: Next, policy makers must prioritize and incentivize the transition to renewable energy. This could be achieved by redirecting national subsidies to renewables and low-carbon energy sources and removing subsidies for fossil fuel technologies. The key actors in this stage are national governments, energy ministries, and large energy companies.

• Decentralization of Energy Production: This step involves a radical change in the global energy production and storage system through the decentralization of energy production. Transitioning to local power generation could lead to a virtually complete decarbonization of production systems.

• Citizens Participation: At this stage, citizens play a major role as nodes in a smart system capable of facilitating flexible demand management. Examples include energy cooperatives and community-driven energy projects.

• Overcoming Infrastructure Challenges: The transition to decentralized control of energy systems will come with increased costs and complexities. It’s necessary to find creative ways to overcome these limitations, e.g., by using smart technologies to divert excess power for local heating, or by bringing municipal supply networks into community ownership.

• Spreading the Initiatives Globally: By leveraging positive knowledge and technology spillover effects from decentralized systems, the costs of the technology are likely to be further reduced with their increased diffusion. This could also trigger the growth of such initiatives in the Global South, bypassing the traditional development phase associated with large power stations and extensive grid infrastructure.

• Planning and Implementation: The last step involves careful planning and implementation. The time between the planning phase and actual installation and utilization of decentralized energy generation is reportedly less than 10 years. However, the existing energy systems and infrastructure are likely to shape the future for decades to come, necessitating a long-term vision and commitment.

Human Settlements

• Recognize Urbanization and Emissions: The first step involves recognizing that buildings account for nearly 20% of all carbon emissions and that global urbanization is increasing at a rapid pace. Acknowledging the lifespan of buildings and infrastructure is also crucial.

• Modify Building Codes: Modify building codes for construction and infrastructural projects to drive the demand for fossil-fuel–free technologies. This step is particularly important for countries in the Global South, where building booms are increasing energy and resource use.

• Create Large-Scale Demonstration Projects: Initiate large-scale demonstration projects like carbon-neutral cities to educate the public and stimulate consumer interest in environmental technologies, leading to faster dissemination and commercialization.

• Local Technology Clusters: Establish local technology clusters to create positive spillover effects that lower information and transaction costs. This can indirectly lead to a reduction in the costs of fossil-fuel–free technologies for energy production and storage.

• Adopt Fossil-Fuel–Free Technologies: Reach the critical condition for social tipping where fossil-fuel–free technology becomes the first choice for new construction and infrastructure projects.

• Use Sustainable Construction Materials: Encourage the use of new construction materials that not only reduce emissions but also actively support carbon sequestration efforts in urban areas.

• Invest in Large-Scale Public Infrastructure: Large-scale public infrastructure investments support the emergence of a shared belief in the emerging new social equilibrium, which can help individuals coordinate changes and find new focal points.

• Support Local Grassroots Initiatives: Support grassroots initiatives like the Transition Town Movement and the Energy Cities Association that encourage citizens to take direct action towards lowering energy demand and building local resilience.

• Implement Plans for Zero Emissions: Implement plans for zero emissions in communities and measure the impact. Evidence shows that these communities can significantly reduce their per-capita emissions.

Financial System

• Acknowledge Financial Risks: Acknowledge the financial risks demonstrated by the 2008 crisis, which highlighted how changes in the market value of assets in one sector and country can rapidly destabilize the global system. Also, understand that maintaining global warming below 2 °C implies significant reductions in the usage of oil, gas, and coal, indicating a potential risk of a carbon bubble.

• Recognize the Possibility of a Carbon Bubble: A growing number of analysts believe a financial bubble is emerging that could burst when investors’ belief in carbon risk reaches a certain threshold.

• Observe Simulations: Simulations show that a small percentage (9%) of investors could tip the system, inducing other investors to follow, thereby reducing the control parameter—the value of fossil-fuel assets.

• Promote Divestment Movement: Encourage the divestment movement that reduces the value of fossil-fuel assets. The movement started with a student campaign and is rapidly expanding to other countries and types of asset owners. The value of investment funds committed to selling off fossil-fuel assets has been rapidly increasing, and divestment is now found in all sectors of society.

• Showcase Successful Divestments: Cite successful examples like that of a Canadian university, which showed that it could reduce the greenhouse gas emissions tied to its investments by up to 26% by restructuring its portfolios and moving investments away from greenhouse gas-intensive sectors.

• Support Divest to Reinvest Movements: Many divestment campaigns have an additional “divest to reinvest” element that advocates for the use of funds invested in fossil-fuel companies to be reinvested in socially and environmentally beneficial projects. This creates positive-feedback interactions with social tipping elements.

• Encourage Warnings from National Banks and Insurance Companies: Encourage national banks and insurance companies to warn against the global risk associated with stranded assets from fossil-fuel projects.

• Note Signs of a Tipping Point: Recognize signs of a tipping point, such as cuts in financial and insurance support for coal projects, and possible divestment from fossil fuel investments by significant financial authorities, such as the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.

System of Norms and Values

• Acknowledge the Moral Implication of Fossil Fuels: Recognize that the extraction and use of fossil fuels, which are out of line with the Paris Climate Agreement targets, are arguably immoral, causing widespread grave and unnecessary harm, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable social groups, future human generations, and causing direct negative health effects.

• Look to Historical Cases: Consider historical cases showing that social and moral norms can affect human behavior on a large scale. For example, changes in the ethical perception of slave labor, initiated by a small group of intellectuals, led to the abolition of the transatlantic slave trade.

• Raise Awareness of Moral Implications: Reveal the moral implications of the continued burning of fossil fuels, which can induce a tipping process through changes in the human normative system, influencing what is rewarded and desired in society.

• Promote Development of Norms in Social Networks: Encourage the development of norms through social networks in neighborhoods or workplaces to support certain lifestyles or technology choices. A study on the installation of photovoltaic panels showed that social networks and dwelling proximity explained homeowners’ decisions to install these panels.

• Strengthen Ethical Perception of Fossil Fuels: The control parameter is represented by the ethical perception of fossil fuels, the environmental externalities they generate, and the broader harm they inflict on societies. The critical condition in the control parameter will be achieved if the majority of social and public opinion leaders recognize the ethical implications of fossil fuels and generate pressure in their peer groups to ostracize the use of products involving fossil fuel burning.

• Mobilize Religious Communities and Social Justice Groups: This could be more widespread in religious communities led by spiritual leaders, like the example set by Pope Francis’s encyclical Laudato si’. Alternatively, it could manifest as a secular trend originating mainly from young, intellectually and social justice-oriented groups of people who might actively stand against supporters of fossil fuels.

• Target Fossil Fuel Wealth: Recognize that the wealth of about 11% of the world’s billionaires is related to energy production (excluding solar and wind), mining, and other natural resource utilization. These groups can be targeted in awareness campaigns and social pressure.

• Influence Established Behavior: Recent experimental evidence shows that dominant social conventions or established behavior can be changed by committed minorities of roughly 25% of a group. Social norms are the sources of law, therefore, recognizing the immoral character of fossil fuels can further lead to regulations restricting the use and extraction of fossil fuels.

• Prepare for Long-Term Efforts: Understand that the time elapsing from the recognition of the activity as a problem and as a matter of a moral choice by international legal scholars, religious groups, and other moral entrepreneurs, to international delegitimization might range from a few decades to a few centuries. The financial and political power of the fossil fuel industry suggests the need for much more substantial political effort to ensure such a change.

• Draw Inspiration from Current Protests and Movements: Take inspiration from current protests and movements, like the #FridaysForFuture climate strikes of school students around the world, the Extinction Rebellion protests in the United Kingdom, and initiatives such as the Green New Deal in the United States, which might be indicators of this change in norms and values taking place right now.

Education System

• ecognize the Role of Education: Acknowledge the significant role of education in social transformations and tackling climate change concerns. The control parameter that relates to this intervention is the coverage of climate change issues in school and university teaching programs.

• Increase Coverage of Climate Change: Work towards more comprehensive approaches at all levels of public education to cover climate change issues, as many teachers currently only include thin coverage of climate change.

• Address Knowledge Gaps: Address the lack of knowledge about the causes, impacts, and solutions to climate change, which is an easily identifiable individual barrier to engagement in climate action.

• Cultivate Understanding: Studies show that divergent ways of understanding climate change draw on discourses broader than scientific knowledge; these differences may be blamed for the misinterpretation of scientific notions such as uncertainty, and the tendency to attribute responsibility for causing and mitigating climate change to others.

• Fast-Track Quality Education: While formal and lifelong education is traditionally considered a slow and evolving process, there are examples of rapid change that can be generated. Quality education can quickly inspire behavior change among individuals and their cohorts.

• Leverage Massive Literacy Campaigns: Refer to past successes, such as the massive literacy campaign in Cuba in the 1950s, where in less than a year illiteracy was reduced from 24 to 3.9%. Such campaigns demonstrate the potential for rapid societal transformation.

• Foster Next-Generation Change Makers: The effects of changes in educational programs can lead to a social tipping process as soon as the new generation enters the job market and public decision-making bodies. For example, the recent #FridaysForFuture protests show the potential for radical political change.

• Combine Efforts: Strengthen the effects of educational campaigns with a supportive family and community context, as well as media campaigns, advertising bans, higher taxes, use prohibitions, and lawsuits against producers.

• Initiate Combined Educational and Mass-Media Campaigns: Use examples like the combined educational and mass-media campaigns in the 1970s in the United States that led to a 4 to 5% annual decrease in cigarette consumption.

• Promote Engagement and Foster Sustainable Lifestyles: Understand that education to bolster understanding of the causes and effects of climate change will not be sufficient alone to transform society. Engagement and the fostering of sustainable lifestyles and career pathways by transforming schools into living laboratories is necessary.

• Counter the Overlooked Shadow Side of Education: Address the often overlooked downside of education, since the secondary and higher levels of education are currently associated with higher resource use. Promote sustainable practices in educational institutions.

Information Feedback

• Identify the Need for Transparency: Understand that the tipping intervention is related to the flow of information and the creation of positive information feedbacks. The control parameter is represented by the transparency of the impact of individual consumer and lifestyle choices and carbon emissions.

• Promote Transparency and Disclosure: Work towards promoting transparency and disclosure of information about carbon emissions. This transparency is needed not only to provide a solid basis for global, regional, and national policies but also to increase public and consumer awareness.

• Improve Labeling Programs: Improve labeling programs, triggering action and lifestyle changes to support decarbonization.

• Expose Corporate-Government Ties: Make use of the recent disclosures of close ties between energy companies and politicians, which led to nationwide social movements and massive public demonstrations against environmental damaging activities, such as the case of RWE in Germany and the Hambach Forest.

• Promote Corporate Disclosure of Carbon Assets: Encourage corporate disclosure of carbon assets to help overcome the short-term horizons of fund managers and create a positive feedback in the divestment movement.

• Strengthen the Information-Education Feedback Loop: Create a positive feedback between the information system and public education. Enhance public knowledge and understanding of the main variables and processes in the Earth’s climate system and their linkages with human activities to increase public sensitivity to emissions-related information.

• Introduce “Earth Facts” Labels: Propose that just as most product packages display nutritional facts, they could also display a second label on “Earth facts” and disclose the information on their carbon footprint and other emissions.

• Leverage Lessons from the Organic Movement: Learn from the global market for organic products, which increased at rates above 10% per year, driven primarily by health concerns but clearly stimulated by providing clear labeling. Draw parallels to promote climate-conscious purchasing decisions.

Discussion and Conclusions

The Social Tipping Elements (STEs) discussed in the text exist in varying degrees, locations, and scales and show potential for facilitating a decarbonization breakthrough. The dynamics of these STEs are complex and unpredictable, but can be intentionally navigated to achieve desirable conditions. These elements can potentially reinforce one another, and triggering multiple STEs simultaneously could lead to faster transition to decarbonization.

The current climate change movement initiated by school children (#FridaysForFuture) has started to impact societal norms, leading to changes in policy, infrastructure, and individual behaviors. Additionally, increased awareness of climate change could drive demand for greenhouse gas emission disclosure for products and services, strengthening carbon mitigation policies.

STEs could also be initiated at the level of resource allocation, by redirecting financial flows in line with the divestment movement and improving information feedback about greenhouse gas emissions. Rapid changes can occur within months, often in response to public opinion and information flows, especially through social media. However, without institutional changes, these trends may not lead to significant societal changes.

The nominated candidates for STEs can potentially interlink with other global policy goals such as the Sustainable Development Goals. The climate crisis could also present an opportunity to redesign global socioeconomic institutions towards a more equitable future.

The authors call for more interdisciplinary research to understand rapid social transformations and their interactions with tipping elements in the Earth system. Both empirical studies and modeling exercises could help assess the distributional impacts of Social Tipping Interventions (STIs) and factors influencing their effectiveness. There is a need for more research and empirical data, especially from the Global South, to verify the findings. The complex nature of climate change requires transdisciplinary research and engagement with social movements and change leaders to understand the necessary social processes and drivers for engagement of diverse coalitions of action.